Having a punt on climate change could make people care more. 

A new study suggests that engaging individuals in prediction markets focused on climate change can effectively enhance concern and understanding of the issue, regardless of their prior beliefs. 

Climate change is a source of political polarisation that makes it difficult to change established viewpoints, so it is harder to address through traditional informational or value-based arguments.

Researchers have now looked at the impact of prediction markets on individuals' attitudes towards climate change. 

Prediction markets are a mechanism for gathering collective estimates on uncertain future events. 

The researchers conducted two trials, the first involving 143 participants and the second a larger trial with 664 participants, all from the United States. 

Participants were asked to bet on climate-related events, such as the likelihood of temperature changes exceeding the previous decade's records in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Correct predictions resulted in financial rewards, while incorrect predictions led to penalties.

Comparisons were made between the participating groups and control groups who did not take part in the prediction markets. 

Both before and after the trials, participants were surveyed to measure any changes in their attitudes. 

The study found that those engaged in the prediction markets showed increased concern about climate change, greater support for climate action, and improved knowledge on climate-related issues.

Importantly, the effects observed were not influenced by participants' previous beliefs or political ideologies. 

Although the impact of the prediction markets was relatively small, the findings highlight their potential as a unique approach to foster positive changes in climate change perceptions and attitudes. 

By introducing short-term costs linked to incorrect beliefs, individuals became more receptive to the urgency and significance of addressing climate change.

The full study is accessible here.